The data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week shows a pick up in bank credit, led by credit growth of large companies. This improvement seems to be mainly on account of higher credit disbursal by the State Bank of India (SBI). The credit to infrastructure grew at 18.5%. In the credit to industry, the already minute share of small firms fell further.
When the RBI had attempted to clean up bank balance sheets, pushed for recognition of bad assets and put weak banks under the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, there resulted a sharp slowdown in bank credit growth.
Recent months have seen a reversal in the RBI’s stance under the new governor. It is reported that regulation is more lax and many banks have been taken out of the PCA framework. In addition, interest rates have been cut.
As a consequence, the total bank credit grew by 12.2% in the financial year 2018-2019. The total credit to industry grew by 6.9%.
Large firms have the highest share of the bank credit in industry, relative to medium or small and micro firms. The growth of credit to industry was driven by large firms at 8.2%. The credit to small and micro firms grew by less than 1%.
The sectoral composition of the bank credit growth shows a sharp increase in credit to infrastructure which grew at 18.5% in the year. The growth rate was negative in 2017-18 at -1.7%. The numbers show the continued dependence of infrastructure on banks. Considering the asset liability mismatch in bank lending to infrastructure, increased lending to infrastructure increases risk in banks.
Most banks have not released financial statements for the full year ending in March 2019. The latest data available is for December 2018. We find that while banks under the PCA framework continue to be weak, even those outside it are not very healthy. The SBI is the exception.
Recently the RBI has moved many banks such as the Bank of India, the Allahabad Bank, the Corporation Bank and others out of the PCA. However, these banks continue to slip on credit growth.
Among the “healthy” banks, the Punjab National Bank shows negative credit growth and 16.3% of assets as gross NPAs. The Canara Bank shows positive growth, but this growth rate declined from September to December 2018.
The SBI is the only bank for which capital adequacy ratio, gross NPA and credit growth have all shown an improvement. The Bank of Baroda shows some improvement but with the capital adequacy ratio worsening. In other words, the growth of credit does not seem to be coming from a general improvement in the health of the banking system.
The overall picture emerging from the latest data on bank credit highlights the lack of fundamental reform in the banking sector. Small and medium enterprises remain deprived of credit. The lack of a bond market encourages both large corporate and infrastructure companies to borrow from banks. Unless long term financial sector reform to build a bond market and a competitive banking system is undertaken, small temporary fixes as have been done in recent months by the RBI might give some increase in credit growth, but the fundamental weaknesses in the financial system will remain unaddressed.